Monday, June 15, 2009

Site status

I've had a very long weekend trying to move this site to something permanent. Some things went well, others not so well. Though the new site looks good overall, there are a few kinks. RSS isn't working right yet, and I have yet to make it seamless for those who have subscribed. I have all the problems identified and am working on them with solutions in mind for all identified issues. I will move it and switch over permanently soon and will definitely let everyone know when that is done. For now, this site will remain up, but you can get a preview of the new one at
http://www.realtruefx.com

As for financial stuff, as soon as I get squared away, I'll provide more analysis and charts. In time there will be even more, especially in the forex realm.

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

AAPL, SLB, Friday charts

I've got charts for Apple and Schlumberger today. I probably have beaten them to death in the past few weeks, but honestly I'm very interested in both. I don't have Apple money, so that stock is a bit out of my range right now. I would have bought back when I recommended it at 123-24. At that time it bottomed out around 122.50 before barging forward for an 8 point bounce and continuing up to a peak of 146.40, which was pretty close to my call of 145. It then retreated to a low of 138.30 on Wednesday and tested that as new support on declining volume and declining downward price action. So what's next? A break of 138 suggests downward towards 130. A close in the next couple days above 140 confirms my bias, which is that price action was simply taking a breather on it's way back up past 145 towards 150. If I had good charting software I'd draw a Fib and further pinpoint a price target, but next significant resistance is around 152 from last August lows. Here's the chart focusing mainly on the next couple days trading though --




As for Schlumberger, it had a pretty nice surge on Thursday, peaking at almost 64 before it hit an upper trend line and market profit taking also took effect late in the day relieving the market from it's bullish run. The events helped confirm my previous projections of 65-70, or at least nearly. I was long and jumped out, in the upper wick of the candle not too far removed from the day's highs. The reason this was my preferred resistance area, was a long high volume bearish candle from October 15th 2008 which had a high of 64.81. That is the key point at the moment. Looking at my current chart, there might be some more room to move up higher to that level, but with a long wick on today's candle one has to start considering the long run might be more tilting towards correction back towards 55. An upmove wouldn't surprise me on Friday, but a close above 64.81 would. The trend line that SLB is following is pretty steep and unsustainable and a fall below it could also be easily a few points, especially with SLB being a bit volatile just as it's leading indicator crude is. A close below Thursday's open at 59.80 would further help confirm the corrective move. So here's that chart--



One last note on the S&P, STILL not a close above 947 resistance. The market tested it and after I posted earlier in the day, profit taking took hold. So, still waiting for a close above that resistance level and a clear bullish move as a signal that the rally might extend to near 1000. With the momentum on several different equities I've been watching also waning, my confidence of that extension is also waning, but my bias is still bullish until the S&P closes below 923, which is a gap that held from a week or so ago. It also looks like there might now be support in the 938 area too, which might help further the bull case. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next week or so, as I would expect some further direction either next week or after options expiration next week.

One final note, check out Alex's trading journal. The link is over on the right of this site under 'Interesting Links' --> 'Options Trading Journal' . This guy really knows his options(something I'm not that well versed in yet, but when I do start trading options I'll make sure to delve deeply into his materials over there to help me learn).
After all I'm just a simple chartist. Until next time, good trading!

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Things are poppin'

Since I am at work and don't have good access to charts or time at the moment I'll keep this short. Economic data looked good this morning, or so the headlines say. I don't pay a great deal of attention to fundamentals, only make myself aware of them. As a result of news, stocks jumped higher today. In doing so, a few stocks I follow have made bullish moves as well. I'll have to take a look further later today after close to see the total affects. Schlumberger rocketed higher on higher crude, the S&P broke 947 pretty convincingly(still waiting for a close above it today though) and even Apple is a little higher after it's retrace. I expected Apple to retrace once it hit 145 though anyway. Right now not so sure what direction it will take though. I'll check back later to take a further look. Until then

Good Trading!

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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

SIRI Dead Money?

Okay, I admit it and I am ashamed. I own Sirius. I know, I know, WTH, right? Oh and no I didn't buy at sub ten cents either. I didn't buy when bankruptcy was almost destined. I didn't buy after Liberty stepped in and saved the day either. Actually it is much, much worse. I bought right after the merger with XM. Sirius XM stock is the reason I am a chartist, the reason I learned not to listen to and base my decision solely on anyone else's analysis, especially fundamental analysis (can anyone say Jim Cramer?). Now that wasn't a shot at Cramer, I find him entertaining sometimes. I'll take full responsibility for being a new investor that didn't know what I was doing at the time and shouldn't have been in the markets anyways. So if nothing else, Sirius has been a wonderful learning experience for me.

Does anyone remember what happened after the merger? Well, I can look at my statements and see something like an 80 percent loss on paper. At this point I figure there really is no point in taking this loss. If it went to zero, it can't hurt much more anyways. If I ever make break even, or better that would be great. So, will I ever break even? I don't know, but a look at the charts shows a likely move in some direction with a symmetric triangle formed. I honestly can't tell if it is up or down though. Either way, I'll hold onto it. Looking towards the downside, twenty-five cents looks to be the limit anyways, with obvious support dating back to March and proven by three bullish candles in a row at that time. Upside, sky's the limit, well no that's really not true. Actually resistance would be around fifty-five cents. So IF I have any chance of EVER breaking even, this is going to have to break to the upside. Either upside or down, it should break in the next couple of days. We'll wait and see. I'll try to follow up then, but honestly after the ride this thing has given me, I'm not an enthusiastic follower, at least not until this is no longer a penny stock(not counting the possibility of a reverse split).


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Monday, June 8, 2009

Day Late, Hopefully Not a Dollar Short

This was meant to be posted yesterday, but sometimes things don't work as planned. So here is a bit overdue update on several things I have been watching the last few weeks. You'll notice the charts are once again different, but this time I think I've found a good program I can use locally, since I don't have decent broker data yet, called QTStalker. I am using Linux, so it is probably one of the better alternatives for the moment. As an added bonus, at least for me, it is somewhat like Metatrader which is what I had become accustomed to while trading forex. Enough of the software review, I'll save that for later, on to the charts!

Yahoo -YHOO - It's had a nice run, but looks like time for correction. I noted a couple weeks ago that a buy was in order when it returned to the lower channel line, which it never really did, but came close. Now it's at the top of the trend channel and after consolidation looks poised to continue down, but there is still some short term bullish pressure as noted by the lower wicks of the candles. Long term is still bullish, but the next several days, might be making it's way down to around 15. Not a great risk to reward though, so might even be a better idea to sit back and wait for a better move.

Teva Pharma - TEVA - I usually don't follow pharma, but I do have a small stake in this one, so I started taking a look at it. It's been ranging for a while now and looks like it just rejected resistance a couple days ago of the 48 level. In fact there is a good reversal candle there. If I were to trade, I'd short to about 42.



Schlumberger - SLB - I'm not so comfortable with this one right now as there has been no renewed momentum upward. Overall bias still remains bullish, as long as support holds between 55-56 which it has. After that, perhaps a correction downwards towards lower 50s. Beyond that, would be a change in direction totally. To the upside, still 65-70. On my trade from the other day, a close below 55 means I'm out, with a small loss of almost 4 points. Upside, hopefully about 7 points.



Apple - AAPL - Quite an impressive late day rally save Apple from closing red, but in the process formed a doji on the charts. Since this denotes confusion (and after yesterday who wouldn't be confused), exercise caution here. I wouldn't go short or long at this point. If you entered around 123, which is where I expected the bounce that then occurred, then you might think about scaling back or closing longs at this point, or just hold on and wait to see what happens. Downside is now around 135.

Petrobras - PBR - I haven't followed this closely, but as of the close yesterday, it looks like support that had been broken, has now been confirmed as new resistance. This doesn't necessarily mean we're headed south, though that is possible. It is also possible that a new channel forms and we head north, just at a slower pace. Petrobras could also push back up into the old channel, further establishing bullish action. Keep an eye on this one for the next couple days.

I'll briefly mention FAF, C, the S&P, and the Dow, even though I don't have charts to post this evening.

First American Corp - FAF - This was expected to hit around 20 support before rebounding, but looks like it bounced slightly at 21. It wasn't a convincing bounce though, so it might still head down to around 20. I'd be looking to possibly go long with price action confirmation at that point.

Citigroup - C - Well as further insult to injury, Citi broke support (when I felt bullish overall) and doesn't look to be headed up soon. I did not find a good confirmation to go long and at this point don't think I would do so. I might miss the train again, but that is a chance I will take. It's better to be confident you're right, then wondering what the hell you were doing. Right now I would not be confident enough to make a move.

The S&P - SPX - and the Dow - DJIA - both appeared to hold support. The S&P however looks to be more concerning as it tested 950 last week and failed it. For now it might range, at least as long at 947 holds as resistance and 920 holds as support. The Dow has not yet hit 9000, but I would still expect it to some time in the near future. A clean break should be bullish, a rejection not so much.

That's all for today, Good trading all!

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Saturday, June 6, 2009

Just Joined Technorati

I'm trying to expand my reach and as a part of that I've just added this site to Technorati. Since this site is also a community, or at least that is the goal, I am making all attempts to draw in even more voices to express their views. I would find it especially useful as I am still developing my investing skills anyway. So I find it very educational to hear other's perspectives. I'll be back again sometime this weekend to add new content.

For now, here's my Technorati profile
Technorati Profile

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Friday, June 5, 2009

Inline Quotes

I just wanted to let everyone know, when visiting this site you will notice that there are now inline stock quotes courtesy of WikiInvest. The RSS feeds show a link, but no quotes of course. I was going to wait until the weekend, but was pretty excited about adding new interactivity to my content for everyone (yes, I'm kind of a perfectionist and a nerd, but that's how successfull people make it). So other than that, quiet day. The non-farm payroll report was as I expected "less bad" than estimated, so there wasn't a negative reaction in the markets (at least yet), but then there hasn't been much upside yet. Still waiting for the S&P and hopeful for a close above 950. It's been holding resistance extremely well this week. We'll just have to wait and see.

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