It's been a while since I posted a mass update on stocks, but thanks to local geological events keeping me up (4 earthquakes in 48 hours) and the fact that I promised more sometime this weekend (technically I have a half hour left, local time at least), here goes. I am skipping the Nikkei, Dow, and S&P for lack of time, but there are 6 other charts and some comments below. Good trading!
C-Citigroup- What can I say, chart appears to be breaking 
the lower trend due to lack of momentum. The best move was months ago when it was about a buck. I still like this as a buy, but the technicals no longer seem to support it at the moment. I'd watch for a move towards 4 dollars, as that confirm another upward leg.
FAF-First American 
Financial- This is currently the only other financial I am following other than Citigroup and Ambac (see Beatdown Financial I Might Buy).
It looks to be in some trouble too in the short term and I might look for a short IF FAF bounces off the bottom of the formerly lower bullish line, which would confirm it as new resistance. I still think it's risky to short financials though, so more than likely even if there is confirmation, I'd probably pass. For those with more guts, might make a good short day-trade though.
YHOO-Yahoo- Still in an uptrend, for what it's worth. I wouldn't enter a trade right now, but only becau
se risk/reward are about equal. We are in the middle of the upward channel, so it could go done as much as up. Other than short term interday activity, I wouldn't touch it. Around 14.75 it would be a buy, and for an against the trend risky short around 17.
TEVA-TEVA Pharma- Still very rangy. It does appear to have formed a bit of an uptrend, buuuuuut it's at the top of that channel, so may very well go back down and stay in a range. TEVA looks better as a buy above 48 or 49 to me, which would be a cleaner break out of the current range. It could happen, but odds look against it for now( but then again I'm not predicting, just making educated guesses.).
SLB-Schlumberger- This is still one of my favorite energy related stocks. It remains in an uptrend tied to crude prices, which to me seems to be a bit inflated again. With that in mind, if crude continues to cruise, SLB should break the $58 resistance area and break out. If not, well back down towards the $40s. I wouldn't buy without a break out, but wouldn't want to short it either.
PBR-Petrobras- Finally I'll close with PBR. It's still in a pretty strong uptrend, but the rise is not convincing, at least in the short term. There hasn't been a great deal of momentum to push through the top part of the channel, so we might b
e ready for a pull back. If so, I'd buy around 40, if the trend line holds, otherwise wait for a breakout of the channel and confirmation that the top channel line has become support.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Mass Update
Saturday, May 30, 2009
AAPL weekend update
The bounce off lows from the Friday before the U.S. holiday of Memorial Day started the day after the holiday, Tuesday and continued through the week. There was a break of the lower trend channel last Friday when AAPL closed in the 122 area but absolutely no follow through and in fact a long bullish candle after the holiday. Trend continues to be up, though if you missed the lower levels, might be a good idea to wait for another pullback. There are parallel lines in this upward channel which suggests a peak around 145-150 so if you are at least break even now, make sure your stops are set right to avoid a loss. I'm not currently in this trade as I missed it, but am looking to make some moves soon. I'll share that when I do, but for now am still following AAPL and will update a few others later in the weekend before trading opens Monday. For now, I'll share a chart of Apple before I hit the road.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Extended break, almost over
After an extended weekend which I have found to be quite relaxing, it's almost time to jump back into the markets. I haven't done much follow-up since a brief check-in on Friday afternoon NY time after noticing AAPL down around 122. I was a bit 'worried' my call was wrong, but looking at the charts it could've gone either way. A stop below the trend line only a point, wouldn't have been touched. Plus to add on to it, the volume was low and the candlestick line not convincing either, all right before a holiday weekend. So what did AAPL do today, bullish engulfing candle and a pop up 8 points. According to the channel, there should be a bit more to come. 133.50 is next resistance, which today came close to and after that 140ish. Still holding out anyways.... Here's the chart and then I'll follow with a few more notes on my recent activities before signing off.
One final note on the content on this blog. The title is 'RealTrueFx', but you may notice no forex content, yet. The plan is to get back to trading currencies very, very soon. Like many beginning forex traders, I've managed to take my lumps and learn a few lessons the hard way. So for the past few weeks I've been getting back to basics. Some of my efforts have been shared via this site, much more practice and study has gone on in the background. I hope to share some of the technical education aspects for others in the coming weeks, and soon thereafter begin posting live trades as I enter the market or set limit orders with targets. Unfortunately, I haven't yet gained the confidence or stability needed to successfully conquer the forex markets and definitely don't want to post anything for others that might lead them astray either. So forex will wait, for a bit.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Beat Down Financials I might buy
ABK and C, both virtual financial pariahs, even with the recent rally, are two stocks I'm interested in at the moment. I've been interested in them since last year, but have never had enough cash free to make a move, which unfortunately equalled me missing out on a couple of 100% moves off of lows. From a purely technical standpoint, we hit the lower trend line around 1.25 for Ambac today. A close below 1.20 signals a reversal of the rally and is a sell signal. Bullish price action on Friday or Tuesday signals a move back upwards(which is still the bias) with a take profit point around this months' highs of 1.80ish.
Citigroup is still on the upward trajectory it has been on, and in fact held support today off of a bounce at the 3.60 short term bullish trend line. So I would still expect continued upward movement, targetting 4.25. Despite the slowing of the overall market rally, signs are not yet showing that it is over. For those on the long side, the hope is that the next two or three days show some hope, otherwise the rally might start to correct as confidence lags.
AAPL continues to hold
Despite a big drop today in the US markets and a corresponding drop in AAPL, the uptrend held. After being near 123 late in the day AAPL rallied to finish over 124, right against the lower bullish trendline. Until a close below that line I would be bullish with a tight stop. Looks like a weak correction thus far, so we'll have to see what happens Friday, which might be a light trading day. If we pop and the trendline holds, target is still around 140. Here's the chart---
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Updated AAPL Chart
As you can see, the lower trendline is still intact after Wednesday's close. Original target of 140 has yet to be met, but if you entered around 120 you would still be in profit. Assuming you moved stop losses up, profit should be pretty much guaranteed at this point. If you are in this trade from 120, you should stay or get out if you want to take some profit. I would look for a move up to target still, but keep a close eye tomorrow on 123-124 level for a break of the trend. There are never any guarantees in the markets, but if 123-124 holds, it would be a good place to add on or get in if you haven't done so, but with a tight stop loss just in case. Good luck all!
Monday, May 18, 2009
Construction adjustments
The layout of this site is undergoing some changes. Please bear with me.
Sphere: Related ContentUpdate on Sunday's charts
I did several stock charts this weekend for practice and part of practice is following up on my analysis. So here is an update(for visual reference see charts below)--
AAPL bounced off the lower channel trend line today, up just over 4 points. That confirms continued bullishness to the 140 area. So far so good.
C appears to have bounced a bit too, as financials were strong in the U.S. session.
The Dow opened at the bottom of the channel too, and bounced, suggesting continuation of rally to 8800 level. Nikkei is still at lower end of channel, maybe a little bit of a down day in Asia again, but the bounce is possible still. S&P bounced off lower end of bullish channel, suggests continuation to 950 level.
FAF continued higher. I think the opportunity was probably missed last week for a good entry, but should continue to 30ish level.
TEVA is still ranging and I can't recommend anything.
YHOO still bullish for now, closer to 16 sell target than the 13.75 buy target. I would expect it might make it to the lower trend line before making a move back up though.
That's it. If I have time I'll update tomorrow. StockTwits, welcome back!
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Forgot an important thing
I do not believe I had anonymous comments on last night, but have corrected that now. Now anyone who wants to leave a comment can do so. Be nice of course, or I'll delete it. Otherwise, post any comments or questions or email me at the address on the left side. I might post a Google chart (GOOG), that I did not analyze yet, but I'm not sure. I should be posting some Forex stuff this week as well.
Thanks to all the StockTwits visitors for stopping by. I hope to see many more of you in the future and hopefully we can all make some $$$$ together.
S&P 500
Yet another critical chart trend line being tested. The S&P is right at the lower trend line for the channel as of Friday afternoon close. We'll see what next week holds, but still wouldn't be surprised to see a retrace of the last several week rally.
Nikkei
Is the rally about to extend on the Nikkei? The longer term trend remains down, BUT the trendline is now being tested. I hope the down trend does end, but it will have to break resistance first.
Dow Financials
It looks like perhaps the run in Financials might be slow. It's been quite a rally, but this crucial trend line might be about to fail and the retrace about to begin.
The DOW is at a very crucial point in the short term, if the 8250 area holds, the rally might continue. If not, I expect a retrace, which is long overdue anyways.
First Real Post Coming very very soon.
I'm a blogging fool! I'm about to post a series of charts. I've been practicing drawing trendlines. I'll admit I got a bit tired and lazy, plus the charts I saved weren't great, so not all TLs and patterns are marked. I tried to go ahead and post my outlook too. These charts are also a couple days old at this point, so the buy and sell points might have been hit already.
I know of one example, ticker IOC, that did indeed hit my entry target and then bounced 3 points of the lower channel, right on cue. Unfortunately I only have a hard copy of that analysis, but look at Wednesday May 13th thru the 15th 2009 for reference.
Well here come the charts in subsequent posts. Enjoy!
Disclaimer
I'll try to post charts and analysis as often as I can, but please don't count on that. I'm still a beginning trader, so absolutely do not trust my analysis as gospel or make any decisions based on mine. I suggest you do your own analysis, whether it is me or Warren Buffet, it definitely pays to know your own stuff. I'm still learning a lot, so feedback is welcome, but please be nice.
therealisttruest(aka realtrue)
RealTrueFx is open
Hi all,
I've just opened a new blog. Bear with me as I take a few weeks to settle in. In the meantime, check out my posts, leave comments, email me, or donate if I have helped you make money and you wish to help me continue and improve this blog.
Therealisttruest(aka RealTrue)
