Site status

I've had a very long weekend trying to move this site to something permanent. Some things went well, others not so well. Though the new site looks good overall, there are a few kinks. RSS isn't working right yet, and I have yet to make it seamless for those who have subscribed. I have all the problems identified and am working on them with solutions in mind for all identified issues. I will move it and switch over permanently soon and will definitely let everyone know when that is done. For now, this site will remain up, but you can get a preview of the new one at
http://www.realtruefx.com

As for financial stuff, as soon as I get squared away, I'll provide more analysis and charts. In time there will be even more, especially in the forex realm.

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AAPL, SLB, Friday charts

I've got charts for Apple and Schlumberger today. I probably have beaten them to death in the past few weeks, but honestly I'm very interested in both. I don't have Apple money, so that stock is a bit out of my range right now. I would have bought back when I recommended it at 123-24. At that time it bottomed out around 122.50 before barging forward for an 8 point bounce and continuing up to a peak of 146.40, which was pretty close to my call of 145. It then retreated to a low of 138.30 on Wednesday and tested that as new support on declining volume and declining downward price action. So what's next? A break of 138 suggests downward towards 130. A close in the next couple days above 140 confirms my bias, which is that price action was simply taking a breather on it's way back up past 145 towards 150. If I had good charting software I'd draw a Fib and further pinpoint a price target, but next significant resistance is around 152 from last August lows. Here's the chart focusing mainly on the next couple days trading though --




As for Schlumberger, it had a pretty nice surge on Thursday, peaking at almost 64 before it hit an upper trend line and market profit taking also took effect late in the day relieving the market from it's bullish run. The events helped confirm my previous projections of 65-70, or at least nearly. I was long and jumped out, in the upper wick of the candle not too far removed from the day's highs. The reason this was my preferred resistance area, was a long high volume bearish candle from October 15th 2008 which had a high of 64.81. That is the key point at the moment. Looking at my current chart, there might be some more room to move up higher to that level, but with a long wick on today's candle one has to start considering the long run might be more tilting towards correction back towards 55. An upmove wouldn't surprise me on Friday, but a close above 64.81 would. The trend line that SLB is following is pretty steep and unsustainable and a fall below it could also be easily a few points, especially with SLB being a bit volatile just as it's leading indicator crude is. A close below Thursday's open at 59.80 would further help confirm the corrective move. So here's that chart--



One last note on the S&P, STILL not a close above 947 resistance. The market tested it and after I posted earlier in the day, profit taking took hold. So, still waiting for a close above that resistance level and a clear bullish move as a signal that the rally might extend to near 1000. With the momentum on several different equities I've been watching also waning, my confidence of that extension is also waning, but my bias is still bullish until the S&P closes below 923, which is a gap that held from a week or so ago. It also looks like there might now be support in the 938 area too, which might help further the bull case. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next week or so, as I would expect some further direction either next week or after options expiration next week.

One final note, check out Alex's trading journal. The link is over on the right of this site under 'Interesting Links' --> 'Options Trading Journal' . This guy really knows his options(something I'm not that well versed in yet, but when I do start trading options I'll make sure to delve deeply into his materials over there to help me learn).
After all I'm just a simple chartist. Until next time, good trading!

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Things are poppin'

Since I am at work and don't have good access to charts or time at the moment I'll keep this short. Economic data looked good this morning, or so the headlines say. I don't pay a great deal of attention to fundamentals, only make myself aware of them. As a result of news, stocks jumped higher today. In doing so, a few stocks I follow have made bullish moves as well. I'll have to take a look further later today after close to see the total affects. Schlumberger rocketed higher on higher crude, the S&P broke 947 pretty convincingly(still waiting for a close above it today though) and even Apple is a little higher after it's retrace. I expected Apple to retrace once it hit 145 though anyway. Right now not so sure what direction it will take though. I'll check back later to take a further look. Until then

Good Trading!

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SIRI Dead Money?

Okay, I admit it and I am ashamed. I own Sirius. I know, I know, WTH, right? Oh and no I didn't buy at sub ten cents either. I didn't buy when bankruptcy was almost destined. I didn't buy after Liberty stepped in and saved the day either. Actually it is much, much worse. I bought right after the merger with XM. Sirius XM stock is the reason I am a chartist, the reason I learned not to listen to and base my decision solely on anyone else's analysis, especially fundamental analysis (can anyone say Jim Cramer?). Now that wasn't a shot at Cramer, I find him entertaining sometimes. I'll take full responsibility for being a new investor that didn't know what I was doing at the time and shouldn't have been in the markets anyways. So if nothing else, Sirius has been a wonderful learning experience for me.

Does anyone remember what happened after the merger? Well, I can look at my statements and see something like an 80 percent loss on paper. At this point I figure there really is no point in taking this loss. If it went to zero, it can't hurt much more anyways. If I ever make break even, or better that would be great. So, will I ever break even? I don't know, but a look at the charts shows a likely move in some direction with a symmetric triangle formed. I honestly can't tell if it is up or down though. Either way, I'll hold onto it. Looking towards the downside, twenty-five cents looks to be the limit anyways, with obvious support dating back to March and proven by three bullish candles in a row at that time. Upside, sky's the limit, well no that's really not true. Actually resistance would be around fifty-five cents. So IF I have any chance of EVER breaking even, this is going to have to break to the upside. Either upside or down, it should break in the next couple of days. We'll wait and see. I'll try to follow up then, but honestly after the ride this thing has given me, I'm not an enthusiastic follower, at least not until this is no longer a penny stock(not counting the possibility of a reverse split).

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Day Late, Hopefully Not a Dollar Short

This was meant to be posted yesterday, but sometimes things don't work as planned. So here is a bit overdue update on several things I have been watching the last few weeks. You'll notice the charts are once again different, but this time I think I've found a good program I can use locally, since I don't have decent broker data yet, called QTStalker. I am using Linux, so it is probably one of the better alternatives for the moment. As an added bonus, at least for me, it is somewhat like Metatrader which is what I had become accustomed to while trading forex. Enough of the software review, I'll save that for later, on to the charts!

Yahoo -YHOO - It's had a nice run, but looks like time for correction. I noted a couple weeks ago that a buy was in order when it returned to the lower channel line, which it never really did, but came close. Now it's at the top of the trend channel and after consolidation looks poised to continue down, but there is still some short term bullish pressure as noted by the lower wicks of the candles. Long term is still bullish, but the next several days, might be making it's way down to around 15. Not a great risk to reward though, so might even be a better idea to sit back and wait for a better move.

Teva Pharma - TEVA - I usually don't follow pharma, but I do have a small stake in this one, so I started taking a look at it. It's been ranging for a while now and looks like it just rejected resistance a couple days ago of the 48 level. In fact there is a good reversal candle there. If I were to trade, I'd short to about 42.



Schlumberger - SLB - I'm not so comfortable with this one right now as there has been no renewed momentum upward. Overall bias still remains bullish, as long as support holds between 55-56 which it has. After that, perhaps a correction downwards towards lower 50s. Beyond that, would be a change in direction totally. To the upside, still 65-70. On my trade from the other day, a close below 55 means I'm out, with a small loss of almost 4 points. Upside, hopefully about 7 points.



Apple - AAPL - Quite an impressive late day rally save Apple from closing red, but in the process formed a doji on the charts. Since this denotes confusion (and after yesterday who wouldn't be confused), exercise caution here. I wouldn't go short or long at this point. If you entered around 123, which is where I expected the bounce that then occurred, then you might think about scaling back or closing longs at this point, or just hold on and wait to see what happens. Downside is now around 135.

Petrobras - PBR - I haven't followed this closely, but as of the close yesterday, it looks like support that had been broken, has now been confirmed as new resistance. This doesn't necessarily mean we're headed south, though that is possible. It is also possible that a new channel forms and we head north, just at a slower pace. Petrobras could also push back up into the old channel, further establishing bullish action. Keep an eye on this one for the next couple days.

I'll briefly mention FAF, C, the S&P, and the Dow, even though I don't have charts to post this evening.

First American Corp - FAF - This was expected to hit around 20 support before rebounding, but looks like it bounced slightly at 21. It wasn't a convincing bounce though, so it might still head down to around 20. I'd be looking to possibly go long with price action confirmation at that point.

Citigroup - C - Well as further insult to injury, Citi broke support (when I felt bullish overall) and doesn't look to be headed up soon. I did not find a good confirmation to go long and at this point don't think I would do so. I might miss the train again, but that is a chance I will take. It's better to be confident you're right, then wondering what the hell you were doing. Right now I would not be confident enough to make a move.

The S&P - SPX - and the Dow - DJIA - both appeared to hold support. The S&P however looks to be more concerning as it tested 950 last week and failed it. For now it might range, at least as long at 947 holds as resistance and 920 holds as support. The Dow has not yet hit 9000, but I would still expect it to some time in the near future. A clean break should be bullish, a rejection not so much.

That's all for today, Good trading all!

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Just Joined Technorati

I'm trying to expand my reach and as a part of that I've just added this site to Technorati. Since this site is also a community, or at least that is the goal, I am making all attempts to draw in even more voices to express their views. I would find it especially useful as I am still developing my investing skills anyway. So I find it very educational to hear other's perspectives. I'll be back again sometime this weekend to add new content.

For now, here's my Technorati profile
Technorati Profile

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Inline Quotes

I just wanted to let everyone know, when visiting this site you will notice that there are now inline stock quotes courtesy of WikiInvest. The RSS feeds show a link, but no quotes of course. I was going to wait until the weekend, but was pretty excited about adding new interactivity to my content for everyone (yes, I'm kind of a perfectionist and a nerd, but that's how successfull people make it). So other than that, quiet day. The non-farm payroll report was as I expected "less bad" than estimated, so there wasn't a negative reaction in the markets (at least yet), but then there hasn't been much upside yet. Still waiting for the S&P and hopeful for a close above 950. It's been holding resistance extremely well this week. We'll just have to wait and see.

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AAPL, SLB, DJIA, and S&P Before NFP

As usual non-farm payroll looks to possibly have a big impact on today's trading. I've been following several stocks lately, but none really closer than Apple AAPL, Schlumberger SLB, and the S&P. Within the last few weeks I've also called for the Dow to hit 9000 as well and with NFP tomorrow, the uptrend is looking to either further the rally or start correcting. I still think a correction is overdue, but I don't want to start making predictions, only educated guesses based on my technical analysis. So enough of the chit-chat, here's what I have on tap for tomorrow. Keep in mind that NFP could throw the market on its head, so I'll do my best to guesstimate the upside and the downside.

Schlumberger is one that has been a bit tricky this week, following the volatility of crude. I am long and will be until a break below the lower trend, around 55. Target to the upside still is about 65. Even with all that said, my entry wasn't great but risk/reward is still about 2 to 1. In fact this trade from two days ago is still under water, but less than a point from break even. Another bad day like Wednesday, which a bad NFP report could spur, could easily put this trade to bed as a loss.

With tech being a beast this year, Apple APPL continues upward. I missed the 122 entry last week, but it should have been triggered around the bottom of the trend line, which still serves as support. The target originally, and still a good conservative target is 145 and has almost been met. I'm still a bull and really do think it could hit 150 in the next several days.


The DJIA average continues upwards with support around 8250, upside still looks to be around 9000. Note that the price action still is bullish, with most moves down being less considerable than the moves up. So for now the bias remains up, up, and then maybe down. As a side note, I don't think non-farm payrolls are going to be a shocker on Friday, and as much of the recent news has been, will likely be "less bad" than expected.


Finally the ever-important S&P500 SPX average has so far held the 920 level I cited a couple days ago and moved back up towards the 947 resistance level on Thursday. Bulls would love to see a close above 950 tomorrow and I am among that group. One important technical factor I missed with SLB the other day was a confirmation of former resistance turned support, which had I waited for that, could be up over 2 points right now, instead of almost break even. This holds true for the S&P, with a break of 947, followed by a confirmation of new support, likely on an intraday chart, makes a much stronger case. Speaking of a stronger case, notice a couple days ago that the S&P held the 20EMA which had converged with the lower trend line-- classic case and a beautiful one at that.

Well that is all for me for the day. Hope trading finds you all well on non-farm payroll day, especially those in the crazy forex markets

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RSS Feeds

I spent the better part of an hour fixing my RSS feed, which delayed the analysis I had planned to post. So that will be later today (late night in NY, as I am in Alaska). For those who currently are subscribed to the RSS feed, you might need to re-subscribe to it, but that should be the last time as I have further verified it to be working correctly now so I won't need to make any further changes for quite some time. I'll also be adding real time quotes within the next couple days so when you visit you'll also be able to see further market action at the same time. Hope today was a good trading day for you all!

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Site news

Well I should be able to post updates after market closes today in NY. I plan to take a look at the S&P (currently in a critical area for the fourth day in a row), AAPL (which is on track per my estimations), SLB, and DJIA. I also need to take a look at sectors for my own personal investment strategy re-alignment which is overdue, but that won't happen until at least this weekend.

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SLB correction

In my last post I stated 56.66, but meant 57.66. I'd say we have broken that level convincingly today, so next support at 55. So to re-state, as far as correctness goes, I would be wrong with a close below 55, but either way, not a great call at this point. For those looking to go long, look for a bounce off 55, as I'm pretty sure that 57.66 was broken(not too late, could correct before close, but I doubt it). I'll provide further insight and a new chart later today or tomorrow.

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Market check

Well it's been an exhausting two days and I've not been paying a great deal of attention to the markets. I don't have any new charts for now, but might do a couple later to further check the critical S&P, as well as AAPL and SLB. Just looking at prices though, AAPL is still holding well, but momentum has slowed. It should still see 145+ at some point soon, technically. SLB held okay yesterday, but is slumping today. I haven't checked crude, but I can guess it's pulling back some without even looking. If SLB holds 56.66, then the long is still in play. Today's close below that suggests I was wrong (but hey it happens). As for the S&P, we should still have support around 920, but as for the breakout above 945, well it just hasn't happened, so for now 920-945 is the area I would anticipate holding. We'll have to see if there is an end of day rally today to push back up towards break even and that ever important resistance area.

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SLB June 2nd

I thought I would do a follow-up on Schlumberger today, since I really don't have time for much else. SLB broke resistance today, and on top of it all gapped up at open. Support should now be at 57.66, Friday's high, or the bottom of the rising window. I hesitated, but am long at 58.86, which is not a great price, but had I waited till close, either after hours or tomorrow morning who knows what the price would have been. Either way, target is now 65-70 and even with support at 57.66, if that were to break shouldn't get below 55 for the near term. I probably won't update anything until later on Tuesday, maybe as late as European open, as I have other commitments during the day. One other quick note, no forex yet, as I haven't gotten through reading a book by Steve Nison, which is a goal of mine before I start forex again(by the way it's also for sale at Amazon and I have a link on the right side of this site if you are interested.)

Anyways, here's the chart for SLB in anticipation of today. Here's hoping the housing numbers tomorrow help further the rally from today.

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Where are we going, $SPX, $NIKK, $DJIA

Looks like we are headed up still, with the exception of the S&P, sort of. The Dow and Nikkei are definitely headed up for now, but the S&P might not continue upward. Tomorrow should tell the tale for the S&P for sure as we did not close above resistance, but closed right at it today. What does that mean, well I don't make predictions, but I think it is more likely that it breaks resistance at some point in the near future than it is that we retrace again. There is now support on the S&P at about 920 with the gap up and the rising window so the downside is about 25 points. If it breaks resistance at the 945-950 level then we could see another 50 points to the up before significant resistance again.

As for the Dow and the Nikkei(opening in a couple hours from now) trend does remain up, with support being the lower bullish trend lines for both. The Dow has significant resistance at the 9000 level with downside likely limited to the 20 EMA area. The chart I'm attaching for the Nikkei shows downside likely limited to the 9400 area, but I don't have an expected upside at this point other than the psychological level of 10000 for resistance.

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