I've got charts for Apple and Schlumberger today. I probably have beaten them to death in the past few weeks, but honestly I'm very interested in both. I don't have Apple money, so that stock is a bit out of my range right now. I would have bought back when I recommended it at 123-24. At that time it bottomed out around 122.50 before barging forward for an 8 point bounce and continuing up to a peak of 146.40, which was pretty close to my call of 145. It then retreated to a low of 138.30 on Wednesday and tested that as new support on declining volume and declining downward price action. So what's next? A break of 138 suggests downward towards 130. A close in the next couple days above 140 confirms my bias, which is that price action was simply taking a breather on it's way back up past 145 towards 150. If I had good charting software I'd draw a Fib and further pinpoint a price target, but next significant resistance is around 152 from last August lows. Here's the chart focusing mainly on the next couple days trading though --
As for Schlumberger, it had a pretty nice surge on Thursday, peaking at almost 64 before it hit an upper trend line and market profit taking also took effect late in the day relieving the market from it's bullish run. The events helped confirm my previous projections of 65-70, or at least nearly. I was long and jumped out, in the upper wick of the candle not too far removed from the day's highs. The reason this was my preferred resistance area, was a long high volume bearish candle from October 15th 2008 which had a high of 64.81. That is the key point at the moment. Looking at my current chart, there might be some more room to move up higher to that level, but with a long wick on today's candle one has to start considering the long run might be more tilting towards correction back towards 55. An upmove wouldn't surprise me on Friday, but a close above 64.81 would. The trend line that SLB is following is pretty steep and unsustainable and a fall below it could also be easily a few points, especially with SLB being a bit volatile just as it's leading indicator crude is. A close below Thursday's open at 59.80 would further help confirm the corrective move. So here's that chart--
One last note on the S&P, STILL not a close above 947 resistance. The market tested it and after I posted earlier in the day, profit taking took hold. So, still waiting for a close above that resistance level and a clear bullish move as a signal that the rally might extend to near 1000. With the momentum on several different equities I've been watching also waning, my confidence of that extension is also waning, but my bias is still bullish until the S&P closes below 923, which is a gap that held from a week or so ago. It also looks like there might now be support in the 938 area too, which might help further the bull case. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next week or so, as I would expect some further direction either next week or after options expiration next week.
One final note, check out Alex's trading journal. The link is over on the right of this site under 'Interesting Links' --> 'Options Trading Journal' . This guy really knows his options(something I'm not that well versed in yet, but when I do start trading options I'll make sure to delve deeply into his materials over there to help me learn).
After all I'm just a simple chartist. Until next time, good trading!
Thursday, June 11, 2009
AAPL, SLB, Friday charts
Things are poppin'
Since I am at work and don't have good access to charts or time at the moment I'll keep this short. Economic data looked good this morning, or so the headlines say. I don't pay a great deal of attention to fundamentals, only make myself aware of them. As a result of news, stocks jumped higher today. In doing so, a few stocks I follow have made bullish moves as well. I'll have to take a look further later today after close to see the total affects. Schlumberger rocketed higher on higher crude, the S&P broke 947 pretty convincingly(still waiting for a close above it today though) and even Apple is a little higher after it's retrace. I expected Apple to retrace once it hit 145 though anyway. Right now not so sure what direction it will take though. I'll check back later to take a further look. Until then
Good Trading!
Thursday, June 4, 2009
AAPL, SLB, DJIA, and S&P Before NFP
As usual non-farm payroll looks to possibly have a big impact on today's trading. I've been following several stocks lately, but none really closer than Apple AAPL, Schlumberger SLB, and the S&P. Within the last few weeks I've also called for the Dow to hit 9000 as well and with NFP tomorrow, the uptrend is looking to either further the rally or start correcting. I still think a correction is overdue, but I don't want to start making predictions, only educated guesses based on my technical analysis. So enough of the chit-chat, here's what I have on tap for tomorrow. Keep in mind that NFP could throw the market on its head, so I'll do my best to guesstimate the upside and the downside.
Schlumberger is one that has been a bit tricky this week, following the volatility of crude. I am lo
ng and will be until a break below the lower trend, around 55. Target to the upside still is about 65. Even with all that said, my entry wasn't great but risk/reward is still about 2 to 1. In fact this trade from two days ago is still under water, but less than a point from break even. Another bad day like Wednesday, which a bad NFP report could spur, could easily put this trade to bed as a loss.
With tech being a beast this year, Apple APPL continues upward. I missed the 122 entry last week, but it should have been triggered around the bottom of the trend line, which still serves as support. The target originally, and still a good conservative target is 145 and has almost been met. I'm still a bull and really do think it could hit 150 in the next several days.
The DJIA average continues upwards with support around 8250, upside still looks to be around 9000. Note that the price action still is bullish, with most moves down being less considerable than the moves up. So for now the bias remains up, up, and then maybe down. As a side note, I don't think non-farm payrolls are going to be a shocker on Friday, and as much of the recent news has been, will likely be "less bad" than expected.
Finally the ever-important S&P500 SPX average has so far held the 920 level I cited a couple days ago and moved back up towards the 947 resistance level on Thursday. Bulls would love to see a close above 950 tomorrow and I am among that group. One important technical factor I missed with SLB the other day was a confirmation of former resistance turned support, which had I waited for that, could be up over 2 points right now, instead of almost break even. This holds true for the S&P, with a break of 947, followed by a confirmation of new support, likely on an intraday chart, makes a much stronger case. Speaking of a stronger case, notice a couple days ago that the S&P held the 20EMA which had converged with the lower trend line-- classic case and a beautiful one at that.
Well that is all for me for the day. Hope trading finds you all well on non-farm payroll day, especially those in the crazy forex markets
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Market check
Well it's been an exhausting two days and I've not been paying a great deal of attention to the markets. I don't have any new charts for now, but might do a couple later to further check the critical S&P, as well as AAPL and SLB. Just looking at prices though, AAPL is still holding well, but momentum has slowed. It should still see 145+ at some point soon, technically. SLB held okay yesterday, but is slumping today. I haven't checked crude, but I can guess it's pulling back some without even looking. If SLB holds 56.66, then the long is still in play. Today's close below that suggests I was wrong (but hey it happens). As for the S&P, we should still have support around 920, but as for the breakout above 945, well it just hasn't happened, so for now 920-945 is the area I would anticipate holding. We'll have to see if there is an end of day rally today to push back up towards break even and that ever important resistance area.
Sphere: Related ContentSaturday, May 30, 2009
AAPL weekend update
The bounce off lows from the Friday before the U.S. holiday of Memorial Day started the day after the holiday, Tuesday and continued through the week. There was a break of the lower trend channel last Friday when AAPL closed in the 122 area but absolutely no follow through and in fact a long bullish candle after the holiday. Trend continues to be up, though if you missed the lower levels, might be a good idea to wait for another pullback. There are parallel lines in this upward channel which suggests a peak around 145-150 so if you are at least break even now, make sure your stops are set right to avoid a loss. I'm not currently in this trade as I missed it, but am looking to make some moves soon. I'll share that when I do, but for now am still following AAPL and will update a few others later in the weekend before trading opens Monday. For now, I'll share a chart of Apple before I hit the road.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Extended break, almost over
After an extended weekend which I have found to be quite relaxing, it's almost time to jump back into the markets. I haven't done much follow-up since a brief check-in on Friday afternoon NY time after noticing AAPL down around 122. I was a bit 'worried' my call was wrong, but looking at the charts it could've gone either way. A stop below the trend line only a point, wouldn't have been touched. Plus to add on to it, the volume was low and the candlestick line not convincing either, all right before a holiday weekend. So what did AAPL do today, bullish engulfing candle and a pop up 8 points. According to the channel, there should be a bit more to come. 133.50 is next resistance, which today came close to and after that 140ish. Still holding out anyways.... Here's the chart and then I'll follow with a few more notes on my recent activities before signing off.
One final note on the content on this blog. The title is 'RealTrueFx', but you may notice no forex content, yet. The plan is to get back to trading currencies very, very soon. Like many beginning forex traders, I've managed to take my lumps and learn a few lessons the hard way. So for the past few weeks I've been getting back to basics. Some of my efforts have been shared via this site, much more practice and study has gone on in the background. I hope to share some of the technical education aspects for others in the coming weeks, and soon thereafter begin posting live trades as I enter the market or set limit orders with targets. Unfortunately, I haven't yet gained the confidence or stability needed to successfully conquer the forex markets and definitely don't want to post anything for others that might lead them astray either. So forex will wait, for a bit.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
AAPL continues to hold
Despite a big drop today in the US markets and a corresponding drop in AAPL, the uptrend held. After being near 123 late in the day AAPL rallied to finish over 124, right against the lower bullish trendline. Until a close below that line I would be bullish with a tight stop. Looks like a weak correction thus far, so we'll have to see what happens Friday, which might be a light trading day. If we pop and the trendline holds, target is still around 140. Here's the chart---
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Updated AAPL Chart
As you can see, the lower trendline is still intact after Wednesday's close. Original target of 140 has yet to be met, but if you entered around 120 you would still be in profit. Assuming you moved stop losses up, profit should be pretty much guaranteed at this point. If you are in this trade from 120, you should stay or get out if you want to take some profit. I would look for a move up to target still, but keep a close eye tomorrow on 123-124 level for a break of the trend. There are never any guarantees in the markets, but if 123-124 holds, it would be a good place to add on or get in if you haven't done so, but with a tight stop loss just in case. Good luck all!
Monday, May 18, 2009
Update on Sunday's charts
I did several stock charts this weekend for practice and part of practice is following up on my analysis. So here is an update(for visual reference see charts below)--
AAPL bounced off the lower channel trend line today, up just over 4 points. That confirms continued bullishness to the 140 area. So far so good.
C appears to have bounced a bit too, as financials were strong in the U.S. session.
The Dow opened at the bottom of the channel too, and bounced, suggesting continuation of rally to 8800 level. Nikkei is still at lower end of channel, maybe a little bit of a down day in Asia again, but the bounce is possible still. S&P bounced off lower end of bullish channel, suggests continuation to 950 level.
FAF continued higher. I think the opportunity was probably missed last week for a good entry, but should continue to 30ish level.
TEVA is still ranging and I can't recommend anything.
YHOO still bullish for now, closer to 16 sell target than the 13.75 buy target. I would expect it might make it to the lower trend line before making a move back up though.
That's it. If I have time I'll update tomorrow. StockTwits, welcome back!
