Site status

I've had a very long weekend trying to move this site to something permanent. Some things went well, others not so well. Though the new site looks good overall, there are a few kinks. RSS isn't working right yet, and I have yet to make it seamless for those who have subscribed. I have all the problems identified and am working on them with solutions in mind for all identified issues. I will move it and switch over permanently soon and will definitely let everyone know when that is done. For now, this site will remain up, but you can get a preview of the new one at
http://www.realtruefx.com

As for financial stuff, as soon as I get squared away, I'll provide more analysis and charts. In time there will be even more, especially in the forex realm.

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AAPL, SLB, Friday charts

I've got charts for Apple and Schlumberger today. I probably have beaten them to death in the past few weeks, but honestly I'm very interested in both. I don't have Apple money, so that stock is a bit out of my range right now. I would have bought back when I recommended it at 123-24. At that time it bottomed out around 122.50 before barging forward for an 8 point bounce and continuing up to a peak of 146.40, which was pretty close to my call of 145. It then retreated to a low of 138.30 on Wednesday and tested that as new support on declining volume and declining downward price action. So what's next? A break of 138 suggests downward towards 130. A close in the next couple days above 140 confirms my bias, which is that price action was simply taking a breather on it's way back up past 145 towards 150. If I had good charting software I'd draw a Fib and further pinpoint a price target, but next significant resistance is around 152 from last August lows. Here's the chart focusing mainly on the next couple days trading though --




As for Schlumberger, it had a pretty nice surge on Thursday, peaking at almost 64 before it hit an upper trend line and market profit taking also took effect late in the day relieving the market from it's bullish run. The events helped confirm my previous projections of 65-70, or at least nearly. I was long and jumped out, in the upper wick of the candle not too far removed from the day's highs. The reason this was my preferred resistance area, was a long high volume bearish candle from October 15th 2008 which had a high of 64.81. That is the key point at the moment. Looking at my current chart, there might be some more room to move up higher to that level, but with a long wick on today's candle one has to start considering the long run might be more tilting towards correction back towards 55. An upmove wouldn't surprise me on Friday, but a close above 64.81 would. The trend line that SLB is following is pretty steep and unsustainable and a fall below it could also be easily a few points, especially with SLB being a bit volatile just as it's leading indicator crude is. A close below Thursday's open at 59.80 would further help confirm the corrective move. So here's that chart--



One last note on the S&P, STILL not a close above 947 resistance. The market tested it and after I posted earlier in the day, profit taking took hold. So, still waiting for a close above that resistance level and a clear bullish move as a signal that the rally might extend to near 1000. With the momentum on several different equities I've been watching also waning, my confidence of that extension is also waning, but my bias is still bullish until the S&P closes below 923, which is a gap that held from a week or so ago. It also looks like there might now be support in the 938 area too, which might help further the bull case. So we'll just have to see what happens in the next week or so, as I would expect some further direction either next week or after options expiration next week.

One final note, check out Alex's trading journal. The link is over on the right of this site under 'Interesting Links' --> 'Options Trading Journal' . This guy really knows his options(something I'm not that well versed in yet, but when I do start trading options I'll make sure to delve deeply into his materials over there to help me learn).
After all I'm just a simple chartist. Until next time, good trading!

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Day Late, Hopefully Not a Dollar Short

This was meant to be posted yesterday, but sometimes things don't work as planned. So here is a bit overdue update on several things I have been watching the last few weeks. You'll notice the charts are once again different, but this time I think I've found a good program I can use locally, since I don't have decent broker data yet, called QTStalker. I am using Linux, so it is probably one of the better alternatives for the moment. As an added bonus, at least for me, it is somewhat like Metatrader which is what I had become accustomed to while trading forex. Enough of the software review, I'll save that for later, on to the charts!

Yahoo -YHOO - It's had a nice run, but looks like time for correction. I noted a couple weeks ago that a buy was in order when it returned to the lower channel line, which it never really did, but came close. Now it's at the top of the trend channel and after consolidation looks poised to continue down, but there is still some short term bullish pressure as noted by the lower wicks of the candles. Long term is still bullish, but the next several days, might be making it's way down to around 15. Not a great risk to reward though, so might even be a better idea to sit back and wait for a better move.

Teva Pharma - TEVA - I usually don't follow pharma, but I do have a small stake in this one, so I started taking a look at it. It's been ranging for a while now and looks like it just rejected resistance a couple days ago of the 48 level. In fact there is a good reversal candle there. If I were to trade, I'd short to about 42.



Schlumberger - SLB - I'm not so comfortable with this one right now as there has been no renewed momentum upward. Overall bias still remains bullish, as long as support holds between 55-56 which it has. After that, perhaps a correction downwards towards lower 50s. Beyond that, would be a change in direction totally. To the upside, still 65-70. On my trade from the other day, a close below 55 means I'm out, with a small loss of almost 4 points. Upside, hopefully about 7 points.



Apple - AAPL - Quite an impressive late day rally save Apple from closing red, but in the process formed a doji on the charts. Since this denotes confusion (and after yesterday who wouldn't be confused), exercise caution here. I wouldn't go short or long at this point. If you entered around 123, which is where I expected the bounce that then occurred, then you might think about scaling back or closing longs at this point, or just hold on and wait to see what happens. Downside is now around 135.

Petrobras - PBR - I haven't followed this closely, but as of the close yesterday, it looks like support that had been broken, has now been confirmed as new resistance. This doesn't necessarily mean we're headed south, though that is possible. It is also possible that a new channel forms and we head north, just at a slower pace. Petrobras could also push back up into the old channel, further establishing bullish action. Keep an eye on this one for the next couple days.

I'll briefly mention FAF, C, the S&P, and the Dow, even though I don't have charts to post this evening.

First American Corp - FAF - This was expected to hit around 20 support before rebounding, but looks like it bounced slightly at 21. It wasn't a convincing bounce though, so it might still head down to around 20. I'd be looking to possibly go long with price action confirmation at that point.

Citigroup - C - Well as further insult to injury, Citi broke support (when I felt bullish overall) and doesn't look to be headed up soon. I did not find a good confirmation to go long and at this point don't think I would do so. I might miss the train again, but that is a chance I will take. It's better to be confident you're right, then wondering what the hell you were doing. Right now I would not be confident enough to make a move.

The S&P - SPX - and the Dow - DJIA - both appeared to hold support. The S&P however looks to be more concerning as it tested 950 last week and failed it. For now it might range, at least as long at 947 holds as resistance and 920 holds as support. The Dow has not yet hit 9000, but I would still expect it to some time in the near future. A clean break should be bullish, a rejection not so much.

That's all for today, Good trading all!

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Just Joined Technorati

I'm trying to expand my reach and as a part of that I've just added this site to Technorati. Since this site is also a community, or at least that is the goal, I am making all attempts to draw in even more voices to express their views. I would find it especially useful as I am still developing my investing skills anyway. So I find it very educational to hear other's perspectives. I'll be back again sometime this weekend to add new content.

For now, here's my Technorati profile
Technorati Profile

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Inline Quotes

I just wanted to let everyone know, when visiting this site you will notice that there are now inline stock quotes courtesy of WikiInvest. The RSS feeds show a link, but no quotes of course. I was going to wait until the weekend, but was pretty excited about adding new interactivity to my content for everyone (yes, I'm kind of a perfectionist and a nerd, but that's how successfull people make it). So other than that, quiet day. The non-farm payroll report was as I expected "less bad" than estimated, so there wasn't a negative reaction in the markets (at least yet), but then there hasn't been much upside yet. Still waiting for the S&P and hopeful for a close above 950. It's been holding resistance extremely well this week. We'll just have to wait and see.

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RSS Feeds

I spent the better part of an hour fixing my RSS feed, which delayed the analysis I had planned to post. So that will be later today (late night in NY, as I am in Alaska). For those who currently are subscribed to the RSS feed, you might need to re-subscribe to it, but that should be the last time as I have further verified it to be working correctly now so I won't need to make any further changes for quite some time. I'll also be adding real time quotes within the next couple days so when you visit you'll also be able to see further market action at the same time. Hope today was a good trading day for you all!

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Site news

Well I should be able to post updates after market closes today in NY. I plan to take a look at the S&P (currently in a critical area for the fourth day in a row), AAPL (which is on track per my estimations), SLB, and DJIA. I also need to take a look at sectors for my own personal investment strategy re-alignment which is overdue, but that won't happen until at least this weekend.

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SLB June 2nd

I thought I would do a follow-up on Schlumberger today, since I really don't have time for much else. SLB broke resistance today, and on top of it all gapped up at open. Support should now be at 57.66, Friday's high, or the bottom of the rising window. I hesitated, but am long at 58.86, which is not a great price, but had I waited till close, either after hours or tomorrow morning who knows what the price would have been. Either way, target is now 65-70 and even with support at 57.66, if that were to break shouldn't get below 55 for the near term. I probably won't update anything until later on Tuesday, maybe as late as European open, as I have other commitments during the day. One other quick note, no forex yet, as I haven't gotten through reading a book by Steve Nison, which is a goal of mine before I start forex again(by the way it's also for sale at Amazon and I have a link on the right side of this site if you are interested.)

Anyways, here's the chart for SLB in anticipation of today. Here's hoping the housing numbers tomorrow help further the rally from today.

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Extended break, almost over

After an extended weekend which I have found to be quite relaxing, it's almost time to jump back into the markets. I haven't done much follow-up since a brief check-in on Friday afternoon NY time after noticing AAPL down around 122. I was a bit 'worried' my call was wrong, but looking at the charts it could've gone either way. A stop below the trend line only a point, wouldn't have been touched. Plus to add on to it, the volume was low and the candlestick line not convincing either, all right before a holiday weekend. So what did AAPL do today, bullish engulfing candle and a pop up 8 points. According to the channel, there should be a bit more to come. 133.50 is next resistance, which today came close to and after that 140ish. Still holding out anyways.... Here's the chart and then I'll follow with a few more notes on my recent activities before signing off.



One final note on the content on this blog. The title is 'RealTrueFx', but you may notice no forex content, yet. The plan is to get back to trading currencies very, very soon. Like many beginning forex traders, I've managed to take my lumps and learn a few lessons the hard way. So for the past few weeks I've been getting back to basics. Some of my efforts have been shared via this site, much more practice and study has gone on in the background. I hope to share some of the technical education aspects for others in the coming weeks, and soon thereafter begin posting live trades as I enter the market or set limit orders with targets. Unfortunately, I haven't yet gained the confidence or stability needed to successfully conquer the forex markets and definitely don't want to post anything for others that might lead them astray either. So forex will wait, for a bit.

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Construction adjustments

The layout of this site is undergoing some changes. Please bear with me.

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Forgot an important thing

I do not believe I had anonymous comments on last night, but have corrected that now. Now anyone who wants to leave a comment can do so. Be nice of course, or I'll delete it. Otherwise, post any comments or questions or email me at the address on the left side. I might post a Google chart (GOOG), that I did not analyze yet, but I'm not sure. I should be posting some Forex stuff this week as well.

Thanks to all the StockTwits visitors for stopping by. I hope to see many more of you in the future and hopefully we can all make some $$$$ together.

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First Real Post Coming very very soon.

I'm a blogging fool! I'm about to post a series of charts. I've been practicing drawing trendlines. I'll admit I got a bit tired and lazy, plus the charts I saved weren't great, so not all TLs and patterns are marked. I tried to go ahead and post my outlook too. These charts are also a couple days old at this point, so the buy and sell points might have been hit already.

I know of one example, ticker IOC, that did indeed hit my entry target and then bounced 3 points of the lower channel, right on cue. Unfortunately I only have a hard copy of that analysis, but look at Wednesday May 13th thru the 15th 2009 for reference.

Well here come the charts in subsequent posts. Enjoy!

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Disclaimer

I'll try to post charts and analysis as often as I can, but please don't count on that. I'm still a beginning trader, so absolutely do not trust my analysis as gospel or make any decisions based on mine. I suggest you do your own analysis, whether it is me or Warren Buffet, it definitely pays to know your own stuff. I'm still learning a lot, so feedback is welcome, but please be nice.

therealisttruest(aka realtrue)

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RealTrueFx is open

Hi all,
I've just opened a new blog. Bear with me as I take a few weeks to settle in. In the meantime, check out my posts, leave comments, email me, or donate if I have helped you make money and you wish to help me continue and improve this blog.

Therealisttruest(aka RealTrue)

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