Sunday, May 31, 2009

Mass Update

It's been a while since I posted a mass update on stocks, but thanks to local geological events keeping me up (4 earthquakes in 48 hours) and the fact that I promised more sometime this weekend (technically I have a half hour left, local time at least), here goes. I am skipping the Nikkei, Dow, and S&P for lack of time, but there are 6 other charts and some comments below. Good trading!

C-Citigroup- What can I say, chart appears to be breaking the lower trend due to lack of momentum. The best move was months ago when it was about a buck. I still like this as a buy, but the technicals no longer seem to support it at the moment. I'd watch for a move towards 4 dollars, as that confirm another upward leg.





FAF-First American Financial- This is currently the only other financial I am following other than Citigroup and Ambac (see Beatdown Financial I Might Buy).
It looks to be in some trouble too in the short term and I might look for a short IF FAF bounces off the bottom of the formerly lower bullish line, which would confirm it as new resistance. I still think it's risky to short financials though, so more than likely even if there is confirmation, I'd probably pass. For those with more guts, might make a good short day-trade though.

YHOO-Yahoo- Still in an uptrend, for what it's worth. I wouldn't enter a trade right now, but only because risk/reward are about equal. We are in the middle of the upward channel, so it could go done as much as up. Other than short term interday activity, I wouldn't touch it. Around 14.75 it would be a buy, and for an against the trend risky short around 17.




TEVA-TEVA Pharma- Still very rangy. It does appear to have formed a bit of an uptrend, buuuuuut it's at the top of that channel, so may very well go back down and stay in a range. TEVA looks better as a buy above 48 or 49 to me, which would be a cleaner break out of the current range. It could happen, but odds look against it for now( but then again I'm not predicting, just making educated guesses.).



SLB-Schlumberger- This is still one of my favorite energy related stocks. It remains in an uptrend tied to crude prices, which to me seems to be a bit inflated again. With that in mind, if crude continues to cruise, SLB should break the $58 resistance area and break out. If not, well back down towards the $40s. I wouldn't buy without a break out, but wouldn't want to short it either.



PBR-Petrobras- Finally I'll close with PBR. It's still in a pretty strong uptrend, but the rise is not convincing, at least in the short term. There hasn't been a great deal of momentum to push through the top part of the channel, so we might be ready for a pull back. If so, I'd buy around 40, if the trend line holds, otherwise wait for a breakout of the channel and confirmation that the top channel line has become support.

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3 comments:

Alex - My Trader's Journal said...

SLB broke your $58 line today, are you a buyer now? I sold a wide strangle, 45-55, a couple of weeks ago and am almost even money on it now. Thinking of selling a naked put at 55 to raise my profit range.
- Alex

Therealisttruest (aka RealTrue) said...

This oil rally makes me a bit nervous, but as long as it continues I would not be shorting SLB, so your strategy might pay off well. So the next resistance area looks to me to be 65-70ish (my charts suck) which is is the area of the last high volume down move candle from October. Of course all of this hinges on the next couple of hours and today's close. It looks like a good rally today though.

Also, stopped by your site and I definitely will stop by later as I get into options more. I'm still in a capital building phase at the moment, but that is definitely a direction I'm moving in.

Alex - My Trader's Journal said...

Ease into options when you start. I think it's a lot safer than just buying stocks outright, but you have to move smaller than you think. Big "bets" can kill you faster than you realize.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Btw, my June 55 naked put order hit so I have up to $59.33 on the up side before I'm sitting on a loss. http://mytradersjournal.com/stock-options/2009/06/01/added-leg-to-slb-option-position/
I'd have done better to wait until today, but yesterday's later rally would have spooked me.

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