Thursday, June 4, 2009

AAPL, SLB, DJIA, and S&P Before NFP

As usual non-farm payroll looks to possibly have a big impact on today's trading. I've been following several stocks lately, but none really closer than Apple AAPL, Schlumberger SLB, and the S&P. Within the last few weeks I've also called for the Dow to hit 9000 as well and with NFP tomorrow, the uptrend is looking to either further the rally or start correcting. I still think a correction is overdue, but I don't want to start making predictions, only educated guesses based on my technical analysis. So enough of the chit-chat, here's what I have on tap for tomorrow. Keep in mind that NFP could throw the market on its head, so I'll do my best to guesstimate the upside and the downside.

Schlumberger is one that has been a bit tricky this week, following the volatility of crude. I am long and will be until a break below the lower trend, around 55. Target to the upside still is about 65. Even with all that said, my entry wasn't great but risk/reward is still about 2 to 1. In fact this trade from two days ago is still under water, but less than a point from break even. Another bad day like Wednesday, which a bad NFP report could spur, could easily put this trade to bed as a loss.

With tech being a beast this year, Apple APPL continues upward. I missed the 122 entry last week, but it should have been triggered around the bottom of the trend line, which still serves as support. The target originally, and still a good conservative target is 145 and has almost been met. I'm still a bull and really do think it could hit 150 in the next several days.

The DJIA average continues upwards with support around 8250, upside still looks to be around 9000. Note that the price action still is bullish, with most moves down being less considerable than the moves up. So for now the bias remains up, up, and then maybe down. As a side note, I don't think non-farm payrolls are going to be a shocker on Friday, and as much of the recent news has been, will likely be "less bad" than expected.

Finally the ever-important S&P500 SPX average has so far held the 920 level I cited a couple days ago and moved back up towards the 947 resistance level on Thursday. Bulls would love to see a close above 950 tomorrow and I am among that group. One important technical factor I missed with SLB the other day was a confirmation of former resistance turned support, which had I waited for that, could be up over 2 points right now, instead of almost break even. This holds true for the S&P, with a break of 947, followed by a confirmation of new support, likely on an intraday chart, makes a much stronger case. Speaking of a stronger case, notice a couple days ago that the S&P held the 20EMA which had converged with the lower trend line-- classic case and a beautiful one at that.

Well that is all for me for the day. Hope trading finds you all well on non-farm payroll day, especially those in the crazy forex markets

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